MODELING AND SIMULATION (MSS)

Objective:  This subcommittee exists to promote and facilitate exchange of technical information; establish guides, procedures, and standards; affect coordination of research, exploratory development, advanced development, and engineering.  This subcommittee shall focus on solving problems of joint agency interest for airbreathing, rocket, missile, and spacecraft propulsion through robust, verifiable, and credible simulation in order to reduce acquisition time, total life-cycle cost, and risk.

MSS Mission Areas

The Modeling and Simulation Subcommittee (MSS) provides an overarching focus on M&S across all disciplines related to JANNAF Interagency simulation-based acquisition of propulsion systems for aerospace plane, hypersonic aircraft, rocket-based space-access systems, high-speed missiles, and in-space propulsion systems, and gun propulsion systems. Virtual Engineering, Integrated Health Management, and Simulation Credibility Panels of MSS pursue this focus in the following current mission areas: Modeling and Simulation of Systems, Virtual Engineering, Integrated Health Management, System Assessment, Cost Estimation, and Simulation Credibility. At the 11th MSS Meeting, papers are sought to address specifics of these mission areas as described below.

Mission Area I: Modeling and Simulation of Systems

Co-Chairs:
Mr. Eric J. Paulson, AFRL/Edwards AFB
Telephone:   (661) 275-5841
Email:           eric.paulson.1@us.af.mil

Mr. Joseph C. Boyle, NAWCWD/China Lake, CA
Telephone:   (760) 939-7607
Email:           joseph.c.boyle@navy.mil

Modeling and simulation analyses of missile, aircraft, and launch vehicle systems detailing the results of propulsion technology tradeoffs, technology parameter sensitivities, and technology payoff assessments as applied to vehicle level M&S are highly encouraged.

  • M&S of vehicle system technology trades for space launch systems, prompt strike platforms, long-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and hypersonic cruise vehicles
  • Advances in the development of tools, models, and methods for vehicle-level modeling and simulation
  • Simulations, methods, and models to evaluate performance capabilities, cost, and reliability of systems
  • Vehicle and launch facility, weapon and weapon platform, propulsion system and test facility simulations, interactions, integration

Mission Area II: Virtual Engineering

Chair:
Mr. Gary C. Prybyla, NSWC/Indian Head
Telephone:   (301) 744-1473
Email:           gary.prybyla@navy.mil

Virtual engineering encompasses the Modeling and Simulation tools used to help develop, design, test, analyze and visualize systems, subsystems, and components for simulation-based acquisition. Virtual Engineering disciplines include computational fluid dynamics, Finite Element Method (FEM) thermostructural analysis, exterior and interior ballistics, 6-DOF trajectory modeling, and combustion modeling, among others. Virtual engineering uses rapid synthesis and simulation tools, which include traditional deterministic and non-deterministic simulation methods, and non-traditional or “soft computing” methods, including fuzzy logic, neural networks, and genetic algorithms. The goal of virtual engineering is the application of high-credibility models for accurate analysis and rapid design-space evaluation, leading to increases in functionality with reduced cost and reduced safety risk. Advances in virtual engineering tools and techniques that are applicable to all aspects of propulsion are highly encouraged.

  • Design, integration, manufacturing, and testing—tools and techniques.
  • Engineering decision support. Optimization, scheduling, and knowledge-based tools—integration into the engineering process.
  • Advances in the development of models and methods for component modeling and simulation to aid design.

Mission Area III: Integrated Health Management

Co-Chairs:
Mr. R. Scott Hyde, Orbital ATK/Brigham City  
Telephone:   (435) 863-6307
Email:           scott.hyde@orbitalatk.com

Mr. David K. Hogan, Army AMRDEC/Redstone Arsenal, AL
Telephone:   (256) 876-1886
Email:           david.k.hogan2.civ@mail.mil

Integrated Health Management (IHM) promotes advancement and development best practices for IHM of propulsion systems within a “system of systems” environment. IHM technologies are focused on reducing maintenance and logistics costs, and increasing reliability of propulsion systems. IHM includes methods and tools for: data management and mining; integrated communications, command and control; diagnostics; prognostics, and integrated sensors and sensing systems. These tools enable making redline and contingency decisions using knowledge-based expert systems, model-based diagnostic and reasoning, fault models, neural networks, fuzzy logic, genetic and evolutionary algorithms, and life-cycle analysis.

Seeking papers on the following, with the intent to establish a valuable interchange of technical solutions:

  • Data Management and Mining: Advances in data mining, data fusion, machine learning, and statistics with applications to verification and validation of data, prognosis and diagnosis of system health.
  • Integrated Communications, Command and Control: architecture, theory, test beds, and demonstrations.
  • Diagnostic Systems: architecture, theory, simulations, and demonstrations of diagnosis of current state of health of propulsion and vehicle system.
  • Prognostic Systems: architecture, theory, simulations, and demonstrations of prognosis of future state of health of propulsion and vehicle systems; mitigation of, and recovery from, degraded system health to enable condition based repairs and successful missions.
  • Integrated Sensors and Sensing Systems: sensors and integrated sensing systems with broad applications including human health, aircraft, ground vehicles, ships, and energy, and methods for integrated sensing systems across multiple disciplines and end-use applications with an emphasis on measurement technology, smart sensors, test beds, application considerations, lessons learned, and sensor fidelity.

Mission Area IV: Space and Launch Vehicle Cost Estimation

Chair:
Dr. Michael D. Watson, NASA-MSFC/Huntsville
Telephone:   (256) 544-3186
Email:           michael.d.watson@nasa.gov

Many launch and space vehicle programs have come in over budget and behind schedule. There is a need for accurate cost estimation for launch and space vehicles including their subsystems and components. This cost specialist session will address cost estimating methods for various launch and space vehicles, their subsystems, and their components; current cost estimating practices; new models emerging in commercial space sector; supply chain management costs; what causes cost overruns; and current and past launch vehicle cost estimating. Of interest are cost models and estimating techniques for the emerging commercial space transportation sector for sub orbital flights, low earth orbit servicing, and future lunar servicing missions.

Mission Area V: Simulation Credibility

Co-Chairs:
Dr. Unmeel B. Mehta, NASA-ARC/Moffett Field
Telephone:   (650) 604-6744
Email:           unmeel.b.mehta@nasa.gov

Dr. Dean Eklund, AFRL/Wright Patterson AFB
Telephone:   (937) 255-0632
Email:           dean.eklund@us.af.mil

The focus of this Mission Area is on facilitating credible simulations because the credibility of simulations is a major issue for incorporating simulation tools and data into a technology-development program, for conducting simulation-based acquisition, for assessing system reliability to assure human safety and/or mission success, for identifying and assessing risks, and for estimating cost of a component, subsystem or system. Modeling and simulation range from hard computing to soft computing to knowledge-based computing. This Mission Area includes simulation credibility assessment of simulations for design, engineering, manufacturing, health management, ground and flight tests, risk assessment, and cost estimation. Simulation credibility includes assessment and management of simulation uncertainty, sensitivity-uncertainty analysis, experimental uncertainty, modeling uncertainty, simulation verification, validation of models and simulations. Best practices, guidelines, and procedures are also necessary for assessing and improving simulation credibility. Papers are solicited on efforts and guidance on simulation credibility for unit, benchmark, subsystem, and system problems related to the following topics:

  • Uncertainty sources and sensitivity analysis
  • Propagation, quantification, and management of uncertainty
  • Simulation verification
  • Simulation validation and model validation
  • Simulation credibility assessment
  • Risk assessment and management
  • Best practices, guidelines, and procedures for establishing simulation credibility.

Modeling and Simulation Subcommittee Chair

Dr. Michael D. Watson, NASA-MSFC/Huntsville
Telephone:   (256) 544-3186
Email:           michael.d.watson@nasa.gov

Modeling and Simulation Subcommittee Deputy Chair

Mr. Gary C. Prybyla, NSWC/Indian Head
Telephone:   (301) 744-1473
Email:           gary.prybyla@navy.mil

JHU WSE ERG Technical Representative

Mr. Nick Keim, JHU WSE ERG/Columbia
Telephone:   (443) 718-5005
Email:           nkeim@erg.jhu.edu