MODELING AND SIMULATION (MSS)

Objective:  This subcommittee exists to promote and facilitate exchange of technical information; establish guides, procedures, and standards; affect coordination of research, exploratory development, advanced development, and engineering. This subcommittee shall focus on solving problems of joint agency interest for airbreathing, rocket, missile, and spacecraft propulsion through robust, verifiable, and credible simulation in order to reduce acquisition time, total life-cycle cost, and risk.

MSS Mission Areas

The Modeling and Simulation Subcommittee (MSS) provides an overarching focus on M&S across all disciplines related to JANNAF Interagency simulation-based acquisition of propulsion systems for aerospace plane, hypersonic aircraft, rocket-based space-access systems, high-speed missiles, and in-space propulsion systems, and gun propulsion systems. Model-Based System Engineering, Integrated Health Management, and Simulation Credibility Panels of MSS pursue this focus in the following current mission areas: Model-Based System Engineering, Integrated Health Management, Space and Launch Vehicle Cost Estimation, and Simulation Credibility. At the 12th MSS Meeting, papers are sought to address specifics of these mission areas as described below.

Mission Area I: Modeling-Based System Engineering

Chair:
Mr. Eric J. Paulson, Air Force Research Laboratory / Edwards AFB, CA
Telephone:   (661) 275-5841
Email:           eric.paulson.1@us.af.mil

Model-Based System Engineering (MBSE) encompasses the development of methodologies, codes, and model simulations to quantitatively evaluate and optimize propulsion technologies across propulsion component, propulsion system, and vehicle system levels. The use of models complements traditional experiment during technology development with a goal of reducing technology development time and schedule, as well as use physics-based models to explore domains and behaviors that are particularly difficult or impossible to examine experimentally. Publications in this area typically fall under two MBSE topic headings: Modeling Methodologies/Approaches and System Analysis Results.

Examples of topics of interest for the MBSE mission area include the following:

  • Modeling Methods/Approaches
    • Proposed performance/loss models for rotating detonation rocket engines analogous to JANNAF standard for constant pressure liquid rocket engines
    • Accommodating multidisciplinary modeling at multiple simultaneous levels of fidelity
    • Engineering decision support. Optimization, scheduling, and knowledge-based tools—integration into the engineering process
    • Advances in the development of models and methods for component modeling and simulations to aid propulsion design
    • Improvements in commercial software which enable advanced MBSE
    • Challenges/Boosts to using MBSE under a more commercial/less centralized propulsion technology development paradigm and shifts from horizontal to vertical integration in the launch industry
  • System Analysis Results
    • M&S of vehicle system technology trades for space launch systems, prompt strike platforms, long-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and hypersonic cruise vehicles
    • Simulations, methods, and models to evaluate performance capabilities, cost, and reliability of systems
    • Vehicle and launch facility, weapon and weapon platform, propulsion system and test facility simulations, interactions, integration

Mission Area II: Integrated Health Management

Co-Chairs:
Mr. R. Scott Hyde, Orbital ATK / Brigham City, UT  
Telephone:   (435) 863-6307
Email:           scott.hyde@orbitalatk.com

Mr. David K. Hogan, Army Army Aviation and Missile Research, Development and Engineering Center / Redstone Arsenal, AL
Telephone:   (256) 876-1886
Email:           david.k.hogan2.civ@mail.mil

Integrated Health Management (IHM) promotes advancement and development of best practices for IHM of propulsion systems within a “system of systems” environment. IHM technologies are focused on reducing maintenance and logistics costs, and increasing reliability of propulsion systems. IHM includes methods and tools for: data management and mining; integrated communications, command and control; diagnostics; prognostics, and integrated sensors and sensing systems. These tools enable making redline and contingency decisions using knowledge-based expert systems, model-based diagnostic and reasoning, fault models, neural networks, fuzzy logic, genetic and evolutionary algorithms, and life-cycle analysis.

Seeking papers on the following, with the intent to establish a valuable interchange of technical solutions:

  • Data Management and Mining: Advances in data mining, data fusion, machine learning, and statistics with applications to verification and validation of data, prognosis and diagnosis of system health.
  • Integrated Communications, Command and Control: architecture, theory, test beds, and demonstrations.
  • Diagnostic Systems: architecture, theory, simulations, and demonstrations of diagnosis of current state of health of propulsion and vehicle system.
  • Prognostic Systems: architecture, theory, simulations, and demonstrations of prognosis of future state of health of propulsion and vehicle systems; mitigation of, and recovery from, degraded system health to enable condition based repairs and successful missions.
  • Integrated Sensors and Sensing Systems: sensors and integrated sensing systems with broad applications including human health, aircraft, ground vehicles, ships, and energy, and methods for integrated sensing systems across multiple disciplines and end-use applications with an emphasis on measurement technology, smart sensors, test beds, application considerations, lessons learned, and sensor fidelity.

Mission Area III: Space and Launch Vehicle Cost Estimation

Chair:
Dr. Michael D. Watson, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center / Huntsville, AL
Telephone:   (256) 544-3186
Email:           michael.d.watson@nasa.gov

Many launch and space vehicle programs have come in over budget and behind schedule. There is a need for accurate cost estimation for launch and space vehicles including their subsystems and components. This cost specialist session will address cost estimating methods for various launch and space vehicles, their subsystems, and their components; current cost estimating practices; new models emerging in commercial space sector; supply chain management costs; what causes cost overruns; and current and past launch vehicle cost estimating. Of interest are cost models and estimating techniques for the emerging commercial space transportation sector for sub orbital flights, low earth orbit servicing, and future lunar servicing missions.

Mission Area IV: Simulation Credibility

Chair:
Dr. Dean Eklund, Air Force Research Laboratory / Wright-Patterson AFB, OH
Telephone:   (937) 255-0632
Email:           dean.eklund@us.af.mil

The focus of this Mission Area is on facilitating credible simulations because the credibility of simulations is a major issue for incorporating simulation tools and data into a technology-development program, for conducting simulation-based acquisition, for assessing system reliability to assure human safety and/or mission success, for identifying and assessing risks. Simulation credibility includes assessment and management of simulation uncertainty, sensitivity-uncertainty analysis, experimental uncertainty, modeling uncertainty, simulation verification, validation of models and simulations. Papers are solicited on efforts and guidance on simulation credibility for unit, benchmark, subsystem, and system problems related to the following topics:

  • Uncertainty sources and sensitivity analysis
  • Propagation, quantification, and management of uncertainty
  • Simulation verification
  • Model validation
  • Simulation credibility assessment
  • Risk assessment and management
  • Best practices, guidelines, and procedures for establishing simulation credibility.

Modeling and Simulation Subcommittee Chair

Dr. Michael D. Watson, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center / Huntsville, AL
Telephone:   (256) 544-3186
Email:           michael.d.watson@nasa.gov

JHU WSE ERG Technical Representative

Mr. Alex Bishop JHU WSE Energetics Research Group / Columbia, MD
Telephone:   (443) 718-5008
Email:           abishop@erg.jhu.edu